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測量師專欄
Aftermath of Dubai World collapse
黃雍盛
雍盛資產評估及房地產顧問有限公司-董事總經理
英國皇家特許測量師學會會員（MRICS）（1992年）
香港測量師學會會員（MHKIS）（1994年）
英國仲裁學會會員（MCIArb）（1992年）
香港仲裁司學會會員（AHKIArb）（1992年）
香港註冊專業(產業)測量師（RPS）（mid-1990年）
香港地產行政師學會會員（MHIREA）（(2005年)
英國皇家特許測量師學會會員（MRICS）（1992年）
香港測量師學會會員（MHKIS）（1994年）
英國仲裁學會會員（MCIArb）（1992年）
香港仲裁司學會會員（AHKIArb）（1992年）
香港註冊專業(產業)測量師（RPS）（mid-1990年）
香港地產行政師學會會員（MHIREA）（(2005年)
2009-12-09
The global capital will flock to Hong Kong due to the poor external economy environment, except Hong Kong.
The interest rate will maintain at a very low level. Currently, 3-month US Treasury Bond is about 0.0068%!!!!! Low investment cost will continue to ignite the active business of Carry Trade. Please keep a close eye the Euro EU, Japanese Yen, & China Renminbi because they are the global partners at the hierarchy of world trades.
My estimation is that the poor US market will still run for 3 years!!! California's unemployment rate is about 12%. US President Obama has despatched about 35,000 young men to Afghanistan and the army action will be unchanged until Dec 2010 (announced this morning). Obama has to feed the large army force, even though the US domestic economy is poor!!!! So, he has to save one life of Turkey for his Christmas dinner.
Weakness of US dollars will continue. This means that China RMB will still be strong, being very strong indeed. Please note that US$1.00 = HK$7.75 and US$1.00 = RMB 6.831. So, the continuous appreciation of RMB will cause HK$ to depreciate while HK economy is facing the persisting inflation under the circumstances of continuous parking of foreign and PRC capital (as much as about HK$600.00 billion as at the date of this e-mail and about HK$310 billion in the banking sector) in Hong Kong. It is foreseeable that the RMB can replace HK$, surely not nowadays.
Recently Vietname Dong (VND) has been depreciated and Japanese Yen appreciates. This deters the inflow of foreign capital to Vietname in short term and weakens the Japanese export in the medium term.
The possible increase in the estate duty in the PRC and the requisite requirement of disclosing the personal assets in the PRC Government circle would force the PRC personal capital to the Hong Kong market capturing the benefits of low taxation rate and stable legal system while the overseas countries are strickened by the internal poor economy. The price of HK$71,xxx psf'G at No. 39 Conduit Road is only a record of individual transaction price for luxurious residential properties. My friend, Mr. Tsun Sin Man, told me that he had got the offer of HK$9x,000 psf'G. In this regards, I would suggest that Henderson Group should stop selling the flats at No. 39 Conduit Road for long-term investment purpose. The Accommodation Value of No. 20 Peak Road at the rate of about HK$42,000 psf'G will prove my estimation of HK$100,000.00 psf'G in the Peak area to be accurate.
I find that despite the Dubai World collapse, the stock market technical indices are not so bad. Today, the HSI has been rising (up to 22,427 this morning session). I recognise that the HSI will go through 23,xxx to 24,xxx to 25,xxx in the short term, also in line with my estimation. In 2010, I would expect that the above macro situation of inflation and in-equilibrium of global currency system would persist.
So, the solution to the Hong Kong people to hedge against the inflation is to :
(a) hold stocks and shares – categories of PRC household goods, cars, natural resources, coal mining, oil (selective shares), wines, and HK property rental-producing stocks, composite trading, utility services, etc.
(b) hold properties of good-quality or good location for rental income - if you think that the property price is so expensive, then you can still have the choices of investing in the low-priced properties in the, for instance, New Territories West along the Western Rail.
Do not solely concentrate on the properties in the urban areas. It is likely that the property price in the east of Eastern Rail will rise slower than that in the west of it.
(c) do not borrow money to the maximum capacity of one's own from the bank except for the purpose of business money-earning, because you have to pay interest.
Do reduce your own financial burden. During the period of inflation, hold the rental-producing assets.
(d) downward adjust the expenditure on the entertainment and unnecessary luxurious goods.
The interest rate will maintain at a very low level. Currently, 3-month US Treasury Bond is about 0.0068%!!!!! Low investment cost will continue to ignite the active business of Carry Trade. Please keep a close eye the Euro EU, Japanese Yen, & China Renminbi because they are the global partners at the hierarchy of world trades.
My estimation is that the poor US market will still run for 3 years!!! California's unemployment rate is about 12%. US President Obama has despatched about 35,000 young men to Afghanistan and the army action will be unchanged until Dec 2010 (announced this morning). Obama has to feed the large army force, even though the US domestic economy is poor!!!! So, he has to save one life of Turkey for his Christmas dinner.
Weakness of US dollars will continue. This means that China RMB will still be strong, being very strong indeed. Please note that US$1.00 = HK$7.75 and US$1.00 = RMB 6.831. So, the continuous appreciation of RMB will cause HK$ to depreciate while HK economy is facing the persisting inflation under the circumstances of continuous parking of foreign and PRC capital (as much as about HK$600.00 billion as at the date of this e-mail and about HK$310 billion in the banking sector) in Hong Kong. It is foreseeable that the RMB can replace HK$, surely not nowadays.
Recently Vietname Dong (VND) has been depreciated and Japanese Yen appreciates. This deters the inflow of foreign capital to Vietname in short term and weakens the Japanese export in the medium term.
The possible increase in the estate duty in the PRC and the requisite requirement of disclosing the personal assets in the PRC Government circle would force the PRC personal capital to the Hong Kong market capturing the benefits of low taxation rate and stable legal system while the overseas countries are strickened by the internal poor economy. The price of HK$71,xxx psf'G at No. 39 Conduit Road is only a record of individual transaction price for luxurious residential properties. My friend, Mr. Tsun Sin Man, told me that he had got the offer of HK$9x,000 psf'G. In this regards, I would suggest that Henderson Group should stop selling the flats at No. 39 Conduit Road for long-term investment purpose. The Accommodation Value of No. 20 Peak Road at the rate of about HK$42,000 psf'G will prove my estimation of HK$100,000.00 psf'G in the Peak area to be accurate.
I find that despite the Dubai World collapse, the stock market technical indices are not so bad. Today, the HSI has been rising (up to 22,427 this morning session). I recognise that the HSI will go through 23,xxx to 24,xxx to 25,xxx in the short term, also in line with my estimation. In 2010, I would expect that the above macro situation of inflation and in-equilibrium of global currency system would persist.
So, the solution to the Hong Kong people to hedge against the inflation is to :
(a) hold stocks and shares – categories of PRC household goods, cars, natural resources, coal mining, oil (selective shares), wines, and HK property rental-producing stocks, composite trading, utility services, etc.
(b) hold properties of good-quality or good location for rental income - if you think that the property price is so expensive, then you can still have the choices of investing in the low-priced properties in the, for instance, New Territories West along the Western Rail.
Do not solely concentrate on the properties in the urban areas. It is likely that the property price in the east of Eastern Rail will rise slower than that in the west of it.
(c) do not borrow money to the maximum capacity of one's own from the bank except for the purpose of business money-earning, because you have to pay interest.
Do reduce your own financial burden. During the period of inflation, hold the rental-producing assets.
(d) downward adjust the expenditure on the entertainment and unnecessary luxurious goods.
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